About one-quarter (25.9%) of homebuyers looked to different part of the country in the third quarter of 2023, essentially flat from the record high of 26% in August. It’s up a bit from 24% a year ago and 19% before the pandemic. That data is based on about two million home searches conducted through Redfin’s website and covers more than 100 U.S. metro areas from July 2023 through September 2023.
Overall, Florida’s metro areas remain strongly desired by buyers looking outside their current state, with five of the nation’s top 10 go-to metros. While overall demand has dropped some since the early days of the pandemic and work-from-home changes, the state continues to attract new residents, unlike some pandemic hotspots that have seen demand drop. Redfin’s latest report, for example, notes that once-hot Austin, Texas, has seen more residents planning to move out than in.
Top 10 U.S. go-to metros areas in 3Q 2023
- Sacramento, Calif. – 4,800 new residents; top out-of-state origin: Chicago
- Las Vegas – 4,500 new residents; top out-of-state origin: Los Angeles
- Orlando – 4,000 new residents; top out-of-state origin: New York City
- Myrtle Beach, S.C. – 3,800 new residents; top out-of-state origin: Washington, D.C.
- North Port-Sarasota – 3,700 new residents; top out-of-state origin: New York City
- Portland, Maine – 3,500 new residents; top out-of-state origin: Boston
- Tampa – 3,400 new residents; top out-of-state origin: New York City
- Cape Coral – 3,300 new residents; top out-of-state origin: Chicago
- Miami – 3,200 new residents; top out-of-state origin: New York City
- Salisbury, Maryland – 3,100 new residents; top out-of-state origin: Washington, D.C.
The drop in numbers for people considering out-of-state moves is less than the overall number of homebuyers seeking a move because affordability is a driving reason to relocate for many of them. Austin, Texas, had a notable fall. At the start of 2021, it was the top move-to metro in the nation, and the reasons for its decline may hold lessons for other metro areas. According to the study, Austin’s decline stems from a few issues:
- Rising home prices. By mid-2022, Austin prices were up more than 75% from before the pandemic. The gap between Austin home prices and those of its feeder states, such as Los Angeles and San Francisco, is smaller than it used to be.
- Monthly mortgage payments doubled. A typical monthly payment for Austin’s median-priced home ($455,000) at a 7.63% mortgage rate is $3,890, nearly double 2019’s typical payment of $2,136.
- Return-to-work policies. Some formerly remote workers moved back to their home city; others moved back after realizing Austin isn’t a good long-term fit; still others moved to major job hubs as the labor market started slowing.
Homebuyers leaving Austin are most commonly moving to other places in Texas. San Antonio and Corpus Christi are two of the three most popular destinations for Redfin.com users moving away from Austin; the other is Denver.